Modelling- refer to a GIS operation that attempt to emulate processes in the real world, at one point in time or over an extended period

Prediction- is a forecast

Predictive modelling GIS technique to predict future behavior

Objective- for a variety of management and decision-support purposes

Method- a spatial model based on bayesian modelling

Scientific foundation

• Environmental characteristics influence species distribution
• Species distribution is associated with climatic conditions for each month of the year
• These associations are expressed as a description of the statistical properties of the climatic conditions in locations that a species is recorded

Principle- the method is based on calculating conditional probabilities from the relative frequency of association between the species data and attributes of the environmental data (eg climate, land cover)

Technique

• Habitat Preference Index
• Statistical description of environmental characteristics
• Bayesian modelling

Analysis- the conditional probabilities are considered to describe ecological relationships between the species and the environmental data

Generic question- how to manage species distribution data in conjunction with environmental data

Management & policy- biodiversity management

Look for an article about prediction of wildlife movement Submit a summary based on the following issues

• Objective
• Method
• Scientific foundation
• Principle
• Technique
• Analysis
• Generic question
• Management & policy

Queries about this Session, please send them to: jmwaura@jkuat.ac.ke

*References*

• Geographic Information System Basics, 2012 J.E.Campbell & M. Shin
• Fundamentals of GIS, 2017 Girmay Kindaya
• GIS Applications for Water, Wastewater, and Stormwater Systems, 2005 U.M. Shamsi
• Analytical and Computer Cartography, 2nd ed. Keith C. Claike
• Geographic Information Systems: The Microcomputer and Modern Cartography, 1st ed. Fraser Taylor